Here’s what the main card looks like:

1. Nate Diaz vs. Gray Maynard
2. Evan Dunham vs. Efrain Escudero
3. Tom Lawlor vs. Aaron Simpson
4. Brad Blackburn vs. Amir Sadollah

Lets start as always with the main event!

• Nate Diaz vs. Gray Maynard

This is the fight that can propel Gray Maynard above Frankie Edgar and right in front of his TUF coach BJ Penn for the lightweight belt. While Maynard’s chances of coming out with the belt are the subject of a future article, Maynard is the atypical wrestler in the 155 pound weight class. He is big, has good reach and has excellent wrestling, the reach and size being the decided change from the other wrestlers in the lightweight class and these are his biggest advantages as well. Maynard is big, strong and has a tremendous wrestling base. His size, much like his nickname, is one of using his power to get his opponents to play his clinch and wrestling game. Look for Maynard to try and impose his wrestling game on Diaz. What remains to be seen is if his submission defense is there to the level needed or not.

For Nate Diaz, this could be the match that finally propels him out of the UFN main events and in to the PPV mid card. Having had his share of fights in the UFN main events, and losing to the caveman, Clay Guida,  himself, this has to be a must win for Diaz if he is to reach the next level in the UFC. Not unlike his brother, Nate has a solid counter boxing style that chips away at his opponents more than anything else. Look for him to use this and his reach advantage to keep Maynard at bay and try and get him into a desperation situation from where Nate can use his BJJ to get a submission. The danger of course, is that Nate has the tendency to let himself be taken down. If working with Gilbert Melendez helps, then look for a new found takedown defense and a more aggressive Nate Diaz.

Our Prediction: Nate Diaz by submission: Round 3 (Upset)

• Evan Dunham vs. Efrain Escudero

Evan Dunham was last seen getting his hand raised after a war against veteran Marcus Aurelio. In that fight, Dunham showed his strength, submission defense and overall game. Escudero, on the other hand, is coming off a dominating victory over Cole Miller. Escudero, who recently was in camp with BJ Penn, has the better wrestling and may have the more power. Look for Escudero to look for the opening and go for a nice right hook to finish this. Worse case, I see a TKO via ground and pound for Escudero.

Our Prediction: Efrain Escudero by KO: Round 1

• Tom Lawlor vs. Aaron Simpson

“Filthy” Tom Lawlor of the famous entrances and weigh in antics is a really good fighter. Lawlor has a great ground game and can handle himself on the feet as well. Aaron “A-Train” Simpson on the other hand, much like his stable mates at Arizona Combat Club, is a stud wrestler with good power and a great top game. Look for Lawlor to be taken down early and often by Simpson. I still see Lawlor using either a kimura to finish or sweep Simpson, get top control and submitting Simpson although that is easier said than done.

Our Prediction: Tom Lawlor by Submission: Round 1

• Brad Blackburn vs. Amir Sadollah

For Sadollah, coming off a hard earned victory over Phil Baroni, Blackburn is the real first test on how he does against a real powerful welterweight. Blackburn is a good striker with power and experience on his side. However, if he stands against Sadollah, I see him being cut and out pointed by a better striker in Sadollah. Look for Sadollah to do exactly the same thing he did against Baroni, work out of the initial firepower by frustrating Brad with angles and picking and landing good shots. The second and third round should be easy for Sadollah, who strikes with much better angles and has overall, the better Muay Thai.

Our Prediction: Amir Sadollah by Unanimous decision

Disagree with the picks, comments are always welcome!

This is what the main card looks like:

1. Jamie “The Worm” Varner vs Ben “Smooth” Henderson
2. Urijah “California Kid” Faber vs Rafael Assuncao
3. Dave Jansen Vs. Kamal Shalorus
4. Mike Thomas Brown vs Anthony “Mean Machine” Morrison
5. Mackens Semerzier Vs. Deividas Taurosevicius

Lets start from the main event.

• Jamie “The Worm” Varner vs Ben “Smooth” Henderson

If this was a battle of the nicknames, Ben Henderson wins hands down. But since it isn’t, lets look at what we’ve got. The betting lines show Jamie Varner as the favorite at -120 to Henderson’s -105, clearly indicating that despite the year long lay-off, they expect Varner to be the winner. Varner has the strength, experience and size advantage. He also has the overall advantage as far as KO power goes but from the Cerrone fight, we can safely assume that Ben Henderson has a great chin and that I don’t expect him to be too anxious to let Varner try it. Henderson might be able to get out of Varner’s takedown attempts and force Varner to abandon his wrestling strategy since Henderson is pretty much up there with him in that skill.

We expect this to be hard on Varner if it goes to round 5 mainly because 1) Henderson is going to make him work for the takedowns in the first three rounds and is going to be wormy in the clinch position, causing him to gas a little bit, 2) cage rust is definitely going to hit and 3) Henderson’s own takedown attempts and the constant chase is going to make Varner hurt as far as the gas tank goes. If he doesn’t get the KO, Varner is going to lose this one.

Our prediction: Ben “Smooth” Henderson by unanimous decision: Round 5

• Urijah “California Kid” Faber vs Rafael Assuncao

Urijah Faber returns to the WEC cage in the co-main event against Rafael Assuncao. Anyone who has been following the WEC knows that Urijah is their most marketable star and is one of the foundations of the company’s roster. His return after injury and the loss to Mike Brown for the featherweight title is very important for both. For Faber, this is the first and most important step back to getting into title contention. His two losses to Mike Brown brought his stock down a bit and this is a must win for the california kid. Look for Urijah to use his pressure game, wrestling and fan support to overwhelm Assuncao and get the win.

Rafael Assuncao, brother of Junior Assuncao has had a pretty steady ramp up in his career although there hasn’t been too much fan fare behind his entry into the WEC, other than in the hardcore circles. Assuncao’s major strength is his submission game, but we don’t think he can submit Faber just yet. Assuncao has a lot more progress to make before he can reach up into the upper echelon of the division.

Our Prediction: Urijah Faber by (T)KO: Round 2

• Dave Jansen Vs. Kamal Shalorus

Dave Jansen was till a few months ago, one of the best lightweights outside of the ZUFFA banner, consistently fighting in the M-1 Challenge and amassing a 14-0 record on the way. Jansen, a great all round fighter, will be looking at using his heavy game and power to get Shalorus down and out of the game fast. Shalorus, on the other hand, will look to get his punches in range and connecting with his KO power. At +160, Shalorus is an interesting bet to make but we still feel Jansen has the advantage on sheer cage time and ability.

Our Prediction: Dave Jansen by Decision

• Mike Thomas Brown vs Anthony “Mean Machine” Morrison

Mike Brown has not taken a vacation. Stinging from his first defeat in four years, Brown is determined to make sure that the loss to Aldo remains a distant bad memory and wants to run over Morrison to get the victory and build his place back. With a win against his opponent in the same arena where he beat Urijah Faber, Brown hopes to set up another fight with Faber, if not an immediate title shot. Morrison, who recently started fighting full time, will look to make a match out of the fight, the same as he did against Jim Miller with his wrestling and power slams, but we feel Brown will be too good on the ground and power department for Morrison.

Look for a TKO from Brown on his way back up the featherweight food chain.

Our Prediction: Mike Thomas Brown by TKO: Round 1

• Mackens Semerzier Vs. Deividas Taurosevicius

A win in this fight will take Mackens Semerzier to new heights in the WEC, near the top contenders status and to an extent, into a really big name fight. A win over Deividas Taurosevicius will make all the press sit up and really take notice of Mackens, having beaten Waggney Fabiano in his first WEC appearance. The only dispute as such, might come from Deividas as he tries to establish himself in the top of the division himself. Coming off a victory over Javier “Showtime” Vasquez, the submission specialist is hardly the first to say that this fight is a big one for him. To win against Mackens means that the lithuanian launches himself into the WEC lightweight division and into bigger fights and paychecks. We believe that Taurosevicius’ ground game will be the decider and Mackens will not be able to pull another one this time.

Our Prediction: Deividas Taurosevicius by Submission: Round 2

Check back in to see how we did and don’t forget to tune in to WEC 46 in a little less than 8 hours. To the fights we go!