I fought like garbage and I’m sorry to my fans for my performance. I was hesitant about throwing hard punches because I kept thinking he was going to go for a takedown. It looked like I was knocked down in the second but actually he stepped on my foot and when I tried to back out I slipped. I really don’t think I’m going to stay at 155lbs. I don’t make enough money to have to drop this much weight so I’d like to fight at 170 and only go to 55’s every once in awhile. You know if you look at his face compared to mine right now you’d think there was no way he beat me in a fight but I’ve never been too popular with the judges.

Nate Diaz’s main problems even at lightweight are his lack of power and size and his lack of hesitancy to be taken to the ground. While the latter comes to use once in a while, at welterweight, going up against beasts like Thiago Alves and Josh Koscheck, Nate is going to have a ton of problems with the frame and size that he has presently. It would be interesting though, to see if he can put on some real muscle and improve his skills. Else, he will be doomed to remain in the lower end of whichever division.

Here’s what the main card looks like:

1. Nate Diaz vs. Gray Maynard
2. Evan Dunham vs. Efrain Escudero
3. Tom Lawlor vs. Aaron Simpson
4. Brad Blackburn vs. Amir Sadollah

Lets start as always with the main event!

• Nate Diaz vs. Gray Maynard

This is the fight that can propel Gray Maynard above Frankie Edgar and right in front of his TUF coach BJ Penn for the lightweight belt. While Maynard’s chances of coming out with the belt are the subject of a future article, Maynard is the atypical wrestler in the 155 pound weight class. He is big, has good reach and has excellent wrestling, the reach and size being the decided change from the other wrestlers in the lightweight class and these are his biggest advantages as well. Maynard is big, strong and has a tremendous wrestling base. His size, much like his nickname, is one of using his power to get his opponents to play his clinch and wrestling game. Look for Maynard to try and impose his wrestling game on Diaz. What remains to be seen is if his submission defense is there to the level needed or not.

For Nate Diaz, this could be the match that finally propels him out of the UFN main events and in to the PPV mid card. Having had his share of fights in the UFN main events, and losing to the caveman, Clay Guida,  himself, this has to be a must win for Diaz if he is to reach the next level in the UFC. Not unlike his brother, Nate has a solid counter boxing style that chips away at his opponents more than anything else. Look for him to use this and his reach advantage to keep Maynard at bay and try and get him into a desperation situation from where Nate can use his BJJ to get a submission. The danger of course, is that Nate has the tendency to let himself be taken down. If working with Gilbert Melendez helps, then look for a new found takedown defense and a more aggressive Nate Diaz.

Our Prediction: Nate Diaz by submission: Round 3 (Upset)

• Evan Dunham vs. Efrain Escudero

Evan Dunham was last seen getting his hand raised after a war against veteran Marcus Aurelio. In that fight, Dunham showed his strength, submission defense and overall game. Escudero, on the other hand, is coming off a dominating victory over Cole Miller. Escudero, who recently was in camp with BJ Penn, has the better wrestling and may have the more power. Look for Escudero to look for the opening and go for a nice right hook to finish this. Worse case, I see a TKO via ground and pound for Escudero.

Our Prediction: Efrain Escudero by KO: Round 1

• Tom Lawlor vs. Aaron Simpson

“Filthy” Tom Lawlor of the famous entrances and weigh in antics is a really good fighter. Lawlor has a great ground game and can handle himself on the feet as well. Aaron “A-Train” Simpson on the other hand, much like his stable mates at Arizona Combat Club, is a stud wrestler with good power and a great top game. Look for Lawlor to be taken down early and often by Simpson. I still see Lawlor using either a kimura to finish or sweep Simpson, get top control and submitting Simpson although that is easier said than done.

Our Prediction: Tom Lawlor by Submission: Round 1

• Brad Blackburn vs. Amir Sadollah

For Sadollah, coming off a hard earned victory over Phil Baroni, Blackburn is the real first test on how he does against a real powerful welterweight. Blackburn is a good striker with power and experience on his side. However, if he stands against Sadollah, I see him being cut and out pointed by a better striker in Sadollah. Look for Sadollah to do exactly the same thing he did against Baroni, work out of the initial firepower by frustrating Brad with angles and picking and landing good shots. The second and third round should be easy for Sadollah, who strikes with much better angles and has overall, the better Muay Thai.

Our Prediction: Amir Sadollah by Unanimous decision

Disagree with the picks, comments are always welcome!